Title: Has Climate Change Affected US Hurricane Damage Yet?

Dr. Hugh Edward Willoughby

Abstract:
From 1900 through 2021, US nominal hurricane damage (cost incurred, without adjustment) increased 9% yr−1 as US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 6.45% yr−1. Published analyses contend that “normalized” past hurricane losses, adjusted to economic indicators in the population.
Results suggest that ~1.5% yr−1 of the difference in the GDP adjusted damage resulted from more rapid development on hurricane-prone coasts, and 1% yr−1 resulted from climate change. Growth at 1% yr−1 equals a factor > 3 over 121 yrs. The corresponding values for GDP damage are $0.7B and $0.06B to $8B. The figure for annually aggregated damage are four or five times larger.