Nile Talk Forum: New Insights on the Water Storage in the Nile River Basin Using GRACE/GRACE-FO, Data-Driven and Modeling
Thursday, April 29 at 8:00am to 9:30amVirtual Event
This forum brings experts in Nile and other transboundary river issues of the world to discuss experiences in diffusing tensions, sharing the common good, build trust and develop collaboration and cooperation.
Dr. Emad Hasan | Research Fellow, Center for Space Research, UT Austin
New Insights on the Water Storage in the Nile River Basin Using GRACE/GRACE-FO, Data-Driven and Modeling
This research provides new insights on TWS (total water storage) changes in the Nile River Basin (NRB) through the twentieth and twenty-first Century using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), GRACE-FO (Follow-On), data-driven-reanalysis TWS, land surface model (LSM), and standard drought indicators. 100+ yearlong TWS records were produced using a probabilistic conditional distribution fitting approach by the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape) model. TWS-based drought indicator was employed to assess the drought and flooding severity, duration, magnitude, frequencies, and recurrence during the studied period. GRACE-based TWS data, TWS-reanalysis observations, and LSMs revealed: between 2002 to 2020 the NRB has transited to substantial wetter conditions. In the past century, TWS records revealed a positive increase in the basin’s water storage during the wet and dry seasons. The projected TWS between 2021 to 2050 indicated slight positive changes in water storage during the rainy seasons. These observed trajectories of TWS in the basin call for further water resources planning in the region and effective collaboration among riparian nations.